Why the Analytics Love Baker Mayfield

Say it was your job to select a rookie quarterback for your NFL team, but you were forbidden from watching any of the prospects ever throw a single football.authentic nfl jerseys

Given such a ridiculous restriction, you would probably cross your fingers and scan the stat sheets for a quarterback who:

• Started a lot of college games…

• For a major program…

• Which faced a lot of great defenses…

• And who put up impressive totals and rate stats…5d4e13a5e76dd838a87596a2528373f8_crop_exact

• But wasn’t obviously a product of a system full of great supporting talent.

Now, imagine taking all of those common-sense criteria, defining and quantifying wholesale nfl jerseys them precisely, and creating a metric to guide your scouting department when selecting a quarterback.

That method would look a lot like the Football Outsiders’ QBASE system. And like QBASE, that method would love Baker Mayfield.

You probably know Mayfield started for three seasons for Oklahoma (and a fourth for Texas Tech) and threw for precisely 54 zillion yards and infinite touchdowns (14,607 and 131, actually). Mayfield’s rate stats, including his 68.5 nfl jerseys wholesale percent completion rate and 9.8 yards per pass attempt, are exceptional, even by wide-open Big 12 standards.

Mayfield has has been helped along the way by some great playmakers and offensive linemen, but as Aaron Schatz wrote in this year’s QBASE report, his schedule wasn’t as Big 12 playground-tastic as you might think. Mayfield had a big game against Ohio State and held his own in the CFP semifinals against Georgia, after all. Shake the numbers out to nfl jerseys china remove some distortions, and Mayfield still laps this year’s field.

Moneyball is all about providing context and meaning for statistics. Sometimes, that just means confirming what’s obvious. Mayfield is the most productive, experienced quarterback in this draft class. It shows in the numbers. And it shows on the game film, too.

Portland Trail Blazers (via Kings): Jonathan Isaac

Injuries limited Jonathan Isaac to just 27 games as a rookie, which is the main reason he fell to No. 10 in this re-draft.

Flashes of defensive versatility still fuel plenty of optimism. Isaac guards inside and out, showing the ability to block shots (1.1 in 19.8 minutes), switch out to the perimeter and quickly recover.

He’s further behind offensively, but he possesses an intriguing skill set for a 6’10” big. Isaac made a respectable 16 of his 46 three-pointers, and in space, he’s shown he can handle the ball and make a move. nfl women jerseys

Zach Collins has come on late for the Trail Blazers, and he wouldn’t be a bad pick again in the re-draft. But Isaac has the chance to be a unique defensive weapon and face-up mismatch, as long as he can stay on the floor.

Age (22) and defense allow Kyle Kuzma to fall to No. 9 in a re-draft. Otherwise, it’s pretty obvious he’s an NBA scorer, having just averaged 16.1 points on 45.0 percent shooting. 62a49bedbd8a0acd07c949b3831dc1c0_crop_exactnfl cheap jerseys from china

He’d give the Dallas Mavericks a tough one-two punch with Harrison Barnes at the forward spots.

Kuzma flashed advanced skills and sharp versatility as a shot-maker (2.1 threes per game) and shot-creator, which ultimately was masked at Utah and led to his falling deep into the 2017 first round.

Not in the re-draft—Kuzma should have been a top-10 pick for his ability to put the ball in the basket.china nfl nike jerseys

Frank Ntilikina made his mark on defense while flashing sporadic signs of shot-making and facilitating ability, but De’Aaron Fox’s athleticism and upside remain too enticing.
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He puts pressure on defenses the way Ntilikina can’t. Fox showed more star potential, having also come through multiple times in the clutch with key last-minute buckets as a rookie.

Even his big weakness, shooting, looked better than expected, with Fox having made 47 threes.

He’d give the Knicks a different look and new dimension of speed they don’t get with Ntilikina or Trey Burke.

2018 NFL Draft: What’s the Concern Level for Draft’s Most Notable Injuries?

The best injury for an NFL draft prospect is the one that can be forgotten and never spoken of again.
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That’s the kind of injury that doesn’t derail development when a prospect knows his new NFL team. It also doesn’t keep him from contributing immediately. And most importantly, it doesn’t napalm his draft stock and cost the prospect money after plummeting a round or more.cheap nfl jerseys chinahi-res-22e57ab4dd5601bf8556951896be5e95_crop_exact

Most of the injuries of note among the draft’s top prospects fall under that category, and they can either be cast aside entirely or come with moderate concern at worst. That’s true for defensive end Harold Landry after an ankle issue kept him out for much of 2017 and wide receiver Anthony Miller, who has recovered from a foot injury.nfl jerseys wholesale

However, cornerback Nick Nelson might be headed for a draft spiral after unfortunate timing with his injury. And although defensive tackle Maurice Hurst has been cleared, there’s always some uncertainty surrounding an irregular heartbeat.nfl jerseys china

Let’s take a look at the most notable injuries with less than two weeks to go until the draft and assess the concern level.

Dez Bryant Wants to Stay in NFC East, Says It’s Personal After Cowboys Release

After being released by the Dallas Cowboys on Friday, Dez Bryant wants a shot at his now-former team.

Two shots, if possible.nfl cheap jerseys

The team made the move official after Bryant met with Cowboys owner Jerry Jones at Dallas’ practice facility. On his way out, the longtime Cowboy hinted that he wanted to stay in the NFC East by telling reporters he’d see Dallas twice next season, per Mickey Spagnola of the team’s official website.    hi-res-fe1dd3f8365c84e15f4bba230a2b3e60_crop_northcheap nfl jerseys from china

The Cowboys took Bryant in the first round of the 2010 NFL draft, and he had spent his entire career in Dallas. He hauled in 531 catches for 7,459 yards and 73 touchdowns in his eight seasons with the team. He had a three-year stretch from 2012-14 in which he was one of the best wideouts in the league, hauling in at least 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns in each campaign.nfl jerseys

He may not have reached either of those plateaus in 2017, but he still put up solid numbers. Last season, he caught 69 passes for 838 yards and six scores.

Unfortunately for Bryant and the Cowboys, he broke a bone in his foot in his first regular-season game after signing his lucrative deal in 2015, and a knee injury bothered him in 2016. He has never regained his Pro Bowl form.authentic nfl jerseys

NFL Network’s Steve Wyche reported Friday there will be an “incredibly aggressive” market for Bryant—as evidenced by the amount of players who were recruiting him after the news of his release.wholesale nfl jerseys

No. 25 to No. 21

25. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (23)

Fournette was a big part of Jacksonville’s run to the AFC Championship Game last year, grinding out 1,040 yards on the ground and rushing for nine scores. However, he also averaged just 3.9 yards a carry as a rookie. While he’s unquestionably a talented tailback, Fournette would need to raise his per-carry average to vault up a list like this one next year.nfl jerseys cheap nike

24. T.J. Watt, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers (23)

It’s unsure at what point in the development of the Watt children that their parents started feeding them quarterbacks. But just like older brother Justin James (his friends call him J.J.), Watt showed an affinity for feasting on signal-callers early as a pro, notching two sacks in his NFL debut on his way to seven total in his inaugural go-round. He’s only just scratched the surface of what he’s capable of.

23. Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns (22)hi-res-c8ecb1e02268f4fffdfb205d84fcb48a_crop_exactnfl nike jerseys cheap

At first glance, Garrett’s 31 tackles and seven sacks might not appear overly impressive from a player who was selected first overall in the 2017 draft. But Garrett also missed five games last season—when he was on the field, the burst and explosiveness that helped convince Cleveland to take him was on display. If he can stay healthy, watch out.
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22. Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (24)

A year ago at this time—after guiding Dallas to 13 wins and an NFC East title as a rookie—Prescott likely would have ranked inside the top 10 on this list. However, without Ezekiel Elliott to lean on for part of 2017 (Elliott missed six games), cheap nfl jerseys nike Prescott struggled—he threw nine more interceptions than the season before and saw his passer rating fall by 18.3 points. Prescott’s third season could be a make-or-break one.

21. Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (24)

Gordon has steadily improved over his three seasons, topping 1,000 total yards back in 2016 and then upping that to 1,105 rushing yards and over 1,500 total yards last season. Gordon also played in all 16 games last year for the first time. If he can back last year’s numbers up, the Bolts have the makings of a sneaky-good team in the AFC West in 2018.

Jaleel Scott, New Mexico State

POSITIVES

—Numerous one-handed and acrobatic catches on film.

—Height (6’5″), weight (218) and speed (4.56) will have scouts and coaches begging to develop him.

—Able to use his body and height to win positioning on jump balls.

—Dangerous in the red zone and jump-ball situations.

—Tracks and finds the ball in traffic.

NEGATIVES

—Heavy-footed runner.

—Lacks lateral quickness and burst in routes.

—Dominated lower level of talent.

—Allows corners to work back into his routes and undercut throws.

—Even though he is a bigger receiver, he struggled with physical corners.

OVERALL

Jaleel Scott burst onto the scene with a very impressive game against Arizona State. Length, catch radius and ability to track and find the ball make him a red-zone dream. Lacks ability to separate from defenders but uses his body to keep good position.

POSITIVES cheap nfl nike jerseys free shipping

—Talented route-runner with a diverse tree that projects well to an NFL offense.

—Uses his body (6’1″, 206 lbs) well and plays bigger and stronger than he’s listed.

—Understands timing, leverage and footwork technique to get open; high football IQ.

—Good length and concentration that turns into a big catch radius cheap nike jerseys nfl .47824bc41c1f9ff263728f3a87d2c1a1_crop_exact

—Tough as nails and is willing to sacrifice his body to make grabs.

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NEGATIVES

—Quicker than fast and posted a 4.52 in the 40 at the combine.

—Hands are inconsistent, and too often he fights the ball.cheap nfl jerseys nike china

—Has to be stronger working back to the ball and not letting DBs jump routes.

—Bested poor competition and struggled when challenged by pro-caliber corners.

Michael Bennett to Enter Not Guilty Plea If Felony Charge Goes to Trial

Philadelphia Eagles defensive end Michael Bennett’s lawyer said Friday that his client will enter a not guilty plea if his case goes to trial.

Rusty Hardin said the following regarding Bennett’s case, according to ESPN.com’s Tim McManus: “The only two possible outcomes for this case is the DA’s office [saying] they don’t have a case and dismissing, or a trial—one or the other. If and whenever they ask for a plea, it will be not guilty.”authentic nfl jerseys

Bennett is facing a felony charge of injury to the elderly stemming from an incident that occurred after Super Bowl LI at NRG Stadium in Houston last year.hi-res-533c59058d5d9ef59a3b05c8395774ec_crop_northwholesale nfl jerseys

Per McManus, Bennett allegedly pushed through security personnel, including a 66-year-old woman who is paraplegic, to gain field access after the New England Patriots beat the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI.

Bennett was attempting to reach his brother, Martellus Bennett, who was a tight end with the Pats at the time.

Houston Police chief Art Acevedo said Bennett allegedly nfl jerseys wholesale told security, “You all must know who I am, and I can own this m—–f—–. I’m going down to the field, whether you like it or not.”

Last week, Bennett turned himself in at a courthouse in Harris County, Texas, according to Miya Shay of ABC 13.

He later posted $10,000 bond.nfl jerseys china

Bennett was traded from the Seattle Seahawks to the Eagles this offseason along with a seventh-round pick for wide receiver Marcus Johnson and a fifth-round pick.

The three-time Pro Bowler is set to enter his 10th NFL season.nfl wholesale jerseys

If Bennett’s case is brought to trial and he is found guilty, he could face up to 10 years in prison and a $10,000 fine.nfl jerseys from china

Moving Down a Level…Technically

If the JBA doesn’t appeal to him, perhaps LiAngelo could consider the Chinese Basketball Association. If NBA scouts aren’t convinced by what they’ve seen from him in Lithuania’s LKL—the 11th-best league in the world, according to ESPN.com’s Fran Fraschilla—a move to the CBA, ranked 12th, may help him juice his numbers and get noticed.

Success against softer competition might build LiAngelo’s nfl jerseys china  confidence, perhaps to the point he’d be ready to skip right past the LKL in a few years and take a crack at the eighth-ranked Adriatic League!bdcac3efb8cab5f56e6dbbd09a56265e_crop_exact

This’ll work so long as LiAngelo didn’t do anything dumb in China like, say, getting arrested for shoplifting.

The CBA presents a problem much like the one the G League does. While it’s easy to conclude the competition is suspect based on guys like Jimmer Fredette, Jared Sullinger and Terrence Jones performing well there, it’s vital to remember those guys were dominant college talents, reasonably effective NBA players at some point…or both.nfl wholesale jerseys

LiAngelo isn’t on the same level as NBA washouts killing it in China, which means he’d have to be comfortable going over there (if anyone would take him) and riding the pine. For someone with NBA dreams, that doesn’t seem like the best strategy.nfl jerseys from china

With options limited by his game and baggage (both self-created and handed down from his father), a return to Lithuania seems like LiAngelo’s best bet. His father can manage the environment and narrative there, and he’s scoring 15.7 points per game on 45 percent shooting from deep in his first nine games with Vytautas Prienu.

“He’s shot it well in Lithuania,” Wasserman said. “But it won’t be enough to make up for his inability to pass, rebound or defend, not to mention the character concerns official nfl jerseys cheap raised from the shoplifting incident. Continuing to build up his game and brand in Lithuania may be his best move, assuming he goes undrafted.”

Impact of Friday’s Activity

With the Bears matching Fuller’s deal, the Packers could still be in the market for a cornerback. Players like E.J. Gaines and Adam Jones are still looking for work, so one of them may find an opportunity in Green Bay.

Due to his failed physical with Carolina, Breeland also remains unemployed.

Richardson’s one-year deal with Minnesota is worth $8 million in base salary, and he can earn another $3 million in incentives, according to Rapoport. In turn, that may set the bar for how much teams are willing to offer free agent cheap nfl jerseys china nike Ndamukong Suh. china nike nfl jerseys cheap That could be a disappointment for Suh, who earned roughly $60 million over the past three seasons with the Miami Dolphins.cc80147b4ee3539267f6a1a9358dc1b4_crop_exact

Suh isn’t the only big-name defensive lineman on the open market now that the Eagles have parted ways with Curry. The 29-year-old produced 3.0 sacks on a rotational basis in 2017, and he has 22.0 sacks over the last five seasons. cheap nfl nike jersey Expect him to land a hefty contract from a team in need of a defensive end, although the Patriots may no longer be among that group now that they’ve added Clayborn.

Baltimore’s signing of Crabtree could have a big impact on wide receivers still looking for work, including Eric Decker, Terrelle Pryor, Jeremy Maclin and Kendall Wright.cheap nike nfl jerseys free shipping  While Crabtree’s deal is reasonable, it lowers the chances of anyone else landing a fat, Watkins-like contract.

The Chiefs’ signing of Henne, meanwhile, leaves the nfl cheap jerseys nikeJaguars without their veteran presence behind Blake Bortles.

Who Are the Biggest Trade Targets of the 2018 NFL Offseason?

Nick Foles just won Super Bowl LII and was named MVP, but the quarterback will resume his backup role as soon as Carson Wentz recovers from a torn ACL. Considering that Wentz is one of the best young signal-callers in the game, official nfl store it’s fair to conclude that a lot of quarterback-starved teams would value Foles more than the Eagles.

The 29-year-old is due only $7 million in the final year of his current contract, so teams under the impression he could become their franchise quarterback would be happy to test him out for a season before making a decision in 2019 (franchise tag, long-term deal or cut your losses).all teams in the nfl  0bfa37b0c21e6dad9ba4f3938ff3cb94_crop_exact

The problem is, the Eagles might need Foles in case Wentz isn’t healthy at the start of the 2018 season, which is why they appear to be driving a hard bargain.

Per ESPN’s Chris Mortensen, the team has received multiple inquiries regarding Foles and is asking for more than the first- and fourth-round picks it received from the Minnesota Vikings in exchange for quarterback official nfl Sam Bradford in 2016.

The Pittsburgh Steelers slapped running back Le’Veon Bell with the franchise tag last week, and the 26-year-old All-Pro immediately hinted that he might consider sitting out a good chunk of the regular season without a long-term deal.

So long as Bell’s future with the Steelers is in limbo, cap-rich teams that dream cheapest nfl team to buy of a game-changing weapon in the backfield should be checking in with Steelers GM Kevin Colbert.

You never know if the team might run nfl jerseys cheap out of patience and make a deal.

Teams that could be in the mix: Buccaneers, Lions, Colts, Giants, Raiders, Broncos, 49ers